I WAS chatting last week to an old friend, a former journalist who in his time interviewed some of the 20th century’s most important politicians.…
I WAS chatting last week to an old friend, a former journalist who in his time interviewed some of the 20th century’s most important politicians. Somewhat apocalyptically, I asked him: “When do you think the Third World War will begin?”Let’s try – difficult as it might be – to add a little fresh context to the discussion on the Israel-Palestine crisis. I want to look at possible consequences for the wider world.
Nevertheless, analysts are busy recalibrating their energy and inflation forecasts. Allianz Trade, the world leader in providing trade credit, is predicting oil will go to $140 a barrel if the regional conflict worsens. Anything like that would trigger two major consequences.First, inflation rates will start to rise again. Second, at minimum, central banks will hesitate to cut interest rates till they see where the political and energy situation is going.
Start with the obvious elephant in the room – Iran. How likely in reality is the Tehran regime to get involved in the shooting war? Despite the ingrained hysteria of the US right-wing, Iran remains cautious. Keeping the US and nuclear-armed Israel at bay through fighting battles beyond Iran’s borders has been a crucial doctrine in Tehran’s security agenda. This approach was a key policy of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Forces, who was assassinated in a US air strike in 2020.
As a foretaste, US Navy ships last week intercepted three Houthi cruise missiles headed toward Israel. Also, American military bases in Iraq and Syria were targeted in at least three separate drone attacks, killing one civilian contractor. I don’t think any of this news made the British papers. But Erdogan is capable of throwing his weight around. Earlier this month, Turkish security forces attacked Kurdish militants in northern Syria, close allies of the Americans. In retaliation, US forces shot down a Turkish drone – and Turkey is a Nato member.
Incidentally, Israel was also involved here – it gets oil from Azerbaijan. Just weeks before Azerbaijan launched its 24-hour blitz on September 19, Azerbaijani military cargo planes repeatedly flew between a southern Israeli air base and an airfield near Nagorno-Karabakh, carrying weapons supplies.The Azerbaijani offensive killed more than 200 Armenians as well as precipitating the ethnic cleansing.
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