The S&P 500 hasn't been this overbought since late 2023 — signaling trouble ahead

A key gauge for the broad market indicate could indicate trouble brewing on the horizon.

The stock market's rally to record levels could be in trouble, according to Cantor Fitzgerald. The S & P 500's 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, closed above 81 on Wednesday. This coincided with the S & P 500 closing above 5,600 for the first time. An RSI above 70 indicates an asset is overbought, which could signal it's due for a pullback. A reading below 30 points to oversold conditions for an asset — which tend to precede a bounce.

The S & P 500 has closed with an RSI above 81 only 12 other times in the last 40 years, Cantor head of equity derivatives Eric Johnston pointed out. Those instances have historically been followed by sharp declines for the broad market index. After entering such overbought conditions, the S & P 500 has averaged a decline of 2.21% in the following 15 days, Johnston's data shows. Twenty days out, the benchmark has fallen 1.27% on average.

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