Which teams are most likely to win the NCAA men’s basketball tournament? Based on trends, these are the best bets to come out on top in March Madness.
are a big reason everyone loves March Madness, but when it comes to crowning a winner, Cinderellas are usually nowhere to be found. The men’s national champion typically comes from a select group of elite teams, and we can use past data to identify the eventual winner.. Each team’s AdjEM “represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions,” Pomeroyin 2016.
Pomeroy has been publishing his ratings since the 2001-02 season, so we can go back and look at each national champion’s profile entering the NCAA tournament. This makes it easier to see how teams in this year’s field compare with past champions, and to identify which teams have the best chance of winning it all.This is the lowest adjusted efficiency margin for any NCAA men’s tournament champion since 2002, when Pomeroy’s data begins. The honor is held by, a No.
There’s one caveat for KenPom No. 1 Connecticut, however: Only three teams that entered the NCAA tournament ranked first in Pomeroy’s ratings — 2008 Kansas, 2012 Kentucky and 2019 Virginia — have won it all. Houston was ranked No. 1 by KenPom entering last year’s tournament but was bounced by Miami in the Sweet 16, the second straight KenPom No. 1 to fall in the region semifinals.Here’s a breakdown of how Pomeroy’s pre-tournament No. 1 teams have fared over the last two-plus decades.
The defending champion Huskies are the favorites to once again cut down the nets for a whole lot of reasons: They’ve lost once since Christmas and are simply mowing down opponents . U-Conn. has an effective field goal percentage — which takes into account that three-pointers are worth more than two-pointers — that ranks sixth nationally on offense and fourth on defense, and opponents have made only 43.7 percent of their two-point shots against U-Conn.
The Wildcats enter on a mini-slump, having lost two of three. Pac-12 player of the year Caleb Love has seen his production plummet over that span, as he’s hit only 7 of 34 field goal attempts with 11 turnovers. As a team, Arizona attempts three-pointers at a well-below-average rate even though its players are shooting 37.1 percent from long range for the season . This presents problems when opponents employ zone defenses, as Oregon did in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals .
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