The uncertain state of the US economy could deal a fatal blow to the White House hopes of Kamala Harris.
America’s booming jobs market has long been touted by the Biden-Harris administration as a sign that the US economy is thriving.
JPMorgan has upgraded its estimated odds of a US recession striking within the next 12 months from 25 per cent to 35 per cent, with analysts pointing toward a sharp decline in labour demand.One gloomier warning comes from economists Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez at the University of California.
But Paul Mortimer Lee, research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, says “the risks are definitely mounting”. Homeowners have locked in low mortgage rates and the government has been on an extraordinary borrowing binge – something Harris promises to continue with heavy spending on green initiatives.The crunch in stock markets threatens confidence, for instance, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East is a danger to employers’ plans. Donald Trump will hope this can play into his hands, as markets performed strongly in his first term, bolstered by corporate tax cuts.
“They are probably going to have to cut like lunatics, because the economy, when it turns – and I think it is turning – will turn quite viciously,” he says.
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