At least on paper, Turkey’s opposition has it all worked out. However, it is running out of momentum ahead of the elections due in June
nationalists, has plans for a post-Erdogan future. Constitutional changes will dismantle Mr Erdogan’s executive presidency, hand back to parliament the powers enjoyed by the palace, restore the post of prime minister, free the courts from political influence and lower from 7% to 3% the election threshold that keeps small parties out of parliament.
The second is Turkey’s leader. Mr Erdogan has a history of using the central bank and the treasury to prime the economy ahead of elections, and the courts to harass opponents. He will not hesitate to do all of this again. The third obstacle is the opposition itself. With only months to go before the election, the Nation Alliance, as the opposition calls itself, has still not come up with a united candidate for the presidency. Mr Kilicdaroglu, theIYIMr Kilicdaroglu is a capable manager, and can take much credit for opposition success in the 2019 local elections, which sawmayoral candidates defeated in Turkey’s three largest cities. But he may also be unelectable.
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