The UK might escape recession, and we have America to thank for it 📧 Read HamishMcRae5's latest newsletter
Tax revenue gives an immediate picture of the strength of the economy. After all, income tax and National Insurance Contributions reflect what people are earning, while VAT revenue reflects that they are spending. Nick Macpherson, now Lord Macpherson, was the former Permanent Secretary to the Treasury. He makes the point that when he was there, they found that tax revenue was a better immediate indicator of what happening to the economy than all the forecasts.
There will be a dilemma for the Bank of England when the Fed increases rates, as it is widely expected to do. My own view is that it will not need to do so, but we will see. We also have a budget to get through and my hope is that the Chancellor will use some of that headroomSo we will hear more of the R-word in the months ahead. It will be a flatish year for both countries, and maybe a little flatter for us. But the fundamental point is that 2023 will not be the disaster that many had feared.
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