It's been less than three years since the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement replaced NAFTA as the law of the land in continental trade, and there are already hints of the existential anxiety that preceded it.
That's because of the so-called "sunset provision," a clause that reflects the lingering working-class distrust of globalization in the U.S. that helped Donald Trump get elected president back in 2016.
For Canada, the sunset provision "is a minefield," said Lawrence Herman, an international trade lawyer and public policy expert based in Toronto.Of particular concern is the fact that the provision doesn't spell out in detail what happens if one of the parties indicates that it won't sign off on extending the deal without significant changes to the terms.
The U.S. remains unhappy with how Canada has allocated the quotas that give American dairy producers access to markets north of the border. Canada and Mexico both took issue with how the U.S. defined foreign auto content. And Canada and the U.S. oppose Mexico favouring state-owned energy providers. Prior meetings between the two have typically been on the margins of international summits or at trilateral gatherings with their Mexican counterpart, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Constantly talking up the vital role bilateral trade plays in the continent's continued economic health is a cornerstone of Canada's diplomatic strategy. The message Hyder brought home from D.C.? Don't stop now. That can be a challenging domestic political truth in the U.S., where deep-seated resentment over free trade in general and NAFTA in particular metastasized in 2016 and persists to this day.
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