There are signs of poor morale in some Russian units. Video footage shows at least one tank column hurriedly reversing after being confronted by unarmed civilians
The bulk of Russian forces are now 25km from the centre of Kyiv, the capital, and will probably encircle it in the coming days. Russian forces have also broken through Ukrainian lines in the south, driving west to Odessa, a major port, and north to the centre of the country, where they could cut off Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. Kharkiv, which repelled attacks over the weekend, facedThe Russian war machine is nevertheless struggling. Things are very different from 1968.
Nor has Russia secured the skies. Western officials thought that Russian missiles would wipe out Ukraine’s air defences—a network of radars and surface-to-air missiles—in the first hours of a war. In fact, the strikes were lighter than expected, possibly to conserve low stocks of precision munitions. Perhaps as a result, Russia has not made much use of its warplanes so far, though recent footage appears to show Su-34 bombers over Kharkiv and in the south of Ukraine.
One reason for these blunders may be the scale of the Russian deployment. During its previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014-15, Russia sent no more than a dozen or so battalion tactical groups of 1,000-odd troops. This time it has sent well over 100. The result is “diluted BTGs”, as one American armour officer puts it.
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