The fighting in Sudan is not a one-off. As attention is focused on great-power rivalry between America, Russia and China, conflicts in the rest of the world are getting worse
’s founding charter by invading Ukraine, murdering civilians and kidnapping children, it shows how much taboos have weakened. When China, another permanent member of the, called Mr Putin a “dear friend” despite his indictment for war crimes, it confirmed that for some world powers, might makes right. This emboldens smaller bullies.
Climate change is aggravating the mayhem. It does not directly cause conflict, but when pastures dry up, herders drive their hungry cattle farther afield, often encroaching on land claimed by rival ethnic groups.
If that sounds complicated, it is actually much more so. Ethiopia has more than 90 ethnic groups, many of whose leaders are tempted to stir up hatred to win control of one of the country’s 11 ethnically based regions. It hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees from four turbulent neighbours . The dictatorship next door has sent armies to fight against a previous Ethiopian government, and arm-in-arm with the current one.
A similar dynamic afflicts the whole of the Sahel. Instability is infectious. Farmers displaced by climate change cross unmarked borders and spark clashes. Jihadists seek havens in neighbouring countries. Their ideas spread rapidly online and in radical madrassas. An extreme example of the links between crime and conflict is Haiti. In 2021 its president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated. No one knows who ordered the hit, but many suspect a link to the drug trade. The country has been in chaos since. Gangs that once dominated only slums now control much of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
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