The power tussle between Labour and the Liberal Democrats that is turning toxic
It ought to be a safe seat – with a majority of more than 24,000. Yet the Tories worry that on current polling, combined with the fact governing parties tend to do even worse in by-elections than general elections , mean it could be lost. That would ring serious alarm bells for MPs with smaller majorities just as Sunak tries to turn the page and move into a new phase of his premiership.
It’s why ministers can’t quite believe their luck that, so far, the most vicious battle in Mid Bedfordshire doesn’t actually involve them. Instead, it’s theBoth Keir Starmer and Ed Davey insist that the seat is theirs for the taking. Labour’s argument goes as follows: the party came second in the seat in the 2019 election on 14,028 votes to the Lib Dems, in third, on 8,171 votes.
The two candidates are both technically local – though the Lib Dems and the Tories are both keen to point out that Labour’s is a London councillor even though he grew up in Bedfordshire . Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are hoping to appeal to the true blues by the fact their candidate is involved with the Women’s Institute.
“We think we can win,” insists a Liberal Democrat aide. Meanwhile, a Labour party figure says that the Liberal Democrats are “ridiculous”. Labour complain that already the Lib Dems are fighting dirty – “it’s the only way they know”. And how will the Lib Dems feel if, by both going for the seat, it stays in Tory hands? “That would be frustrating but we hope that won’t happen,” insists one figure involved.
Even if the Tories manage to hold on, it won’t be cause for mass celebration – this is a seat that ought to be safe. Were it to go in a general election, it would be close to Tory wipeout territory. But the competition raises questions not simply about the scale of the Tories’ misfortunes but the prospect of a Lib Dem-Labour electoral pact.
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