This technical indicator predicts S&P 500 will trade at 6000 in August 2025
Despite recent pullbacks, the S&P 500’s performance has remained in the green since the start of 2024, extending its last year’s rally fueled by a resilient US economy, expectations of rate cuts, and unprecedented expansion in the AI sector.
“We viewed this as a bullish backdrop signal for US equities, and the SPX has rallied over 20% since then,” strategists noted. Specifically, an average stretch of 20 months with positive year-over-year returns could see the S&P 500 rise by 17.1%, potentially reaching 6,150 by November 2025. Similarly, a median streak of 17 months is associated with a 14.4% increase, pointing towards an index level of 6,000 by August 2025, BofA added.
Historically, such levels can signal a bottoming of the index, although not invariably. At times, the index may need to fall further, even as this short-term breadth indicator forms a higher low, creating a positive divergence that often precedes a market recovery.), compared to the standard VIX and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, does not show similar levels of oversold conditions.
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