Time for Labour to celebrate? Not just yet

Haunted by past defeats, Keir Starmer's party is serious about the hurdles to victory

Well-wishers embrace Keir Starmer as he attends a by-election victory event for Sarah Edwards, newly elected MP for Tamworth

One thing, for example, which pollsters have been warning for a while could upend the pretty stubborn polling , is war or global crisis. We saw, for example, how populations clung to their incumbent governments during the pandemic – and Boris Johnson’simpossible for the West to avoid. In the week of the by-election double whammy, far from touring Middle England, Rishi Sunak was meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.

Closer to home, Labour is aware of the electoral dangers of slipping into complacency. The party line is “no complacency”, “we’ve got to fight for every single vote, up and down the country”, and “we will work day in, day out for those votes”. Conservative apathy was a trend in the 1997 landslide, too, but Labour knows it has more work to do to attract positive and active support – rather than relying on Tory and

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