This article discusses Donald Trump's attempt to diminish China's influence in Latin America using aggressive tactics. It predicts a geographical division in the region, with the north leaning towards the US and the south potentially moving closer to China. The author argues that a positive agenda, including economic incentives, is crucial for the US to compete effectively with China.
The writer is fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations Donald Trump wants to roll back China’s growing footprint in Latin America. He isn’t above strong-arm tactics to do it. Just see his latest demand to reassume control of the Panama Canal, which a senior Trump appointee afterwards suggested was really about pushing back against China. But if, or rather when, the pressure does come bearing down, don’t expect all of Latin America to respond the same way.
Instead, be prepared for the region to divide less along ideological lines than geographic ones — into a northern half more tightly welded to Washington and a southern half likely to drift, especially if pushed, towards Beijing. Many believe Washington needs a positive agenda to compete effectively with China: carrots, not just sticks, like expanded access to markets in the US and more abundant development financing. And they’re right. But assume for a moment that threats remain Trump’s lingua franca — ones like the proposed 60 per cent tariffs on all goods that pass through the new Chinese-owned and operated mega-port of Chancay in Peru, or 200 per cent tariffs on Mexican-made cars, which Trump fears China could exploit as a backdoor into the US market. Threats only work when they are backed by leverage. But the US’s leverage is not evenly distributed across the region. In Mexico and much of Central America and the Caribbean, Washington still holds most of the cards. Mexico still sends 80 per cent of its exports to the US, for instance. But head to South America, and the picture changes. China is the continent’s top trading partner, while five of the Latin American countries most indebted to China, and four of the five that have received the most Chinese FDI, are in South America. The best evidence that South American leaders won’t necessarily be easily swayed or cajoled by Washington is Argentina’s Trump-loving president Javier Mile
DONALD TRUMP CHINA LATIN AMERICA US FOREIGN POLICY TRADE WAR
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