Donald Trump's presidency is bringing renewed optimism to Kazakhstan that the long-standing Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions will soon be lifted. The incoming US administration signals its intention to continue a Biden-era initiative focused on strengthening political and trade ties with Central Asia.
Donald Trump 's return to the White House has sparked optimism in Kazakhstan that the long-detested Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions will soon be lifted. More broadly, the incoming US administration signals that a Biden administration initiative to strengthen political and trade ties with Central Asia will continue. Expectations of repeal in Astana stem from comments made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his confirmation hearings in early January.
Rubio expressed a commitment to enhancing trade relations with Central Asian states, describing Jackson-Vanik as 'an absurd relic of the past.'The Jackson Vanik amendment was enacted during the latter stages of the Cold War as a tool to pressure communist-led governments worldwide, particularly the former Soviet Union, to uphold basic rights. It linked access to US goods and services for communist states to their willingness to permit freedom of movement and emigration. Since the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Congress has repealed Jackson-Vanik restrictions for most former communist nations, granting them permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status. However, Jackson-Vanik still applies to five former Soviet republics: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These states require annual reviews to secure exemptions from the amendment's provisions, with Congressional approval necessary to fully lift the restrictions.The United States, during the Biden administration, launched an initiative known as B51, aimed at boosting westward trade from Central Asia by promoting regional connectivity. Rubio indicated that the new administration intends to continue promoting B51. Notably, he stated that two key Central Asian states, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, would be prioritized by Congress for the award of PNTR. Steve Daines, a Republican senator from Montana and a leader of the congressional caucus on Central Asia, emphasized at Rubio's confirmation hearing that the United States 'needs more friends' in Central Asia, highlighting its strategic importance despite often being neglected. Rubio concurred, asserting that improved relations between Washington and Central Asian states were 'important.'On his first day in office, Trump ordered a review of US trade arrangements with China, including a provision in the 2020 agreement where Beijing committed to expanding imports from the United States. If US officials determine China is not complying, the United States may impose punitive measures 'up to and including the imposition of tariffs or other measures as needed,' according to a memo issued by Trump. This US-China trade tension could lead to increased US attention and activity in Central Asia, situated on China's western frontier. Valery Volodin, a Kazakh political scientist, stated in an interview with Eurasianet that the United States seeks to enhance its access to Kazakhstan's natural resources, including uranium, oil, natural gas, and rare earths. Volodin believes Trump, understanding 'what is good and what is bad for' the United States, will push Congress to lift Jackson-Vanik restrictions in the near future. He anticipates this as 'great news' for Kazakhstan, whose land is 'rich in natural resources and [has] something to offer America.'
JACKSON-VANIK TRUMP KAZAKHSTAN TRADE CENTRAL ASIA POLITICS US-CHINA TRADE TENSION
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