Donald Trump's second term in office may have a devastating impact on the Scottish economy if he imposes tariffs on imported goods to the US, according to experts. Trump's potential implementation of tariffs has raised concerns due to the repercussions his previous tariffs on Scotch whisky had on Scottish exports.
Donald Trump 's second term in power could have detrimental effects on the Scottish economy if the incoming president imposes tariffs on imports to the US, experts have warned. Following his landmark election victory in November last year, the American tycoon will be officially sworn in at his Washington inauguration today. Trump's return to power has fueled speculation that his new administration might soon implement a 20 percent tariff on foreign goods entering the US.
During his first term, Trump imposed retaliatory tariffs on Scotch whisky imports between October 2019 and March 2021, resulting in £600 million in lost exports, according to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA). Although these tariffs were suspended for five years, they are scheduled to resume in 2026 unless Trump intervenes. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning last week that US economic policies under Trump could negatively impact the rest of the world and ultimately harm the US economy. The UN agency stated that a potential wave of tariffs could exacerbate trade tensions, dampen investment, distort market pricing, disrupt trade flows, and create supply chain disruptions. Dr. Fabian Hilfrich, an expert on US foreign relations, told The Record that Scots should anticipate a return to Trump's often 'vindictive' political style from his first term. The Edinburgh University academic explained, 'Foreign policy, including Scotland's, will not be about compromise. It will be about, 'what's in it for Donald Trump?'For Scotland, a country deeply involved in exporting goods, the most concerning issue is what might be subject to tariffs. The impact on whisky could be disastrous. Certain brands are bottled exclusively for export, and the US has traditionally been a primary market for whisky. This could be devastating for the Scottish economy.' Hilfrich predicted that countries attempting to negotiate exemptions from American tariffs would face challenging negotiations with the new Trump administration. He stated that while Trump might have a 'soft spot' for Scotland, this sentiment is unlikely to interfere with his economic plans. 'When he talks about tariffs, Trump reimagines a bygone America. He has previously mentioned a country with low federal income taxes, but high tariffs,' the academic continued. 'What tariffs will lead to are massive inflationary pressures globally. But driving down inflation was one of the key factors that propelled him back to power. 'Everything will ultimately hinge on negotiations. But Trump will demand certain things. 'On balance, there is a threat to the whisky industry. Trump doesn't drink alcohol. I don't think he'd have much patience for an argument about it being a special case.' The new US president has strong business and family ties to Scotland and is expected to visit the country later this year. Trump's mother, Mary, was born and raised on the Isle of Lewis before emigrating to New York. Torcuil Crichton, the Scottish Labour MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles constituency which includes Lewis), sent Trump a Christmas card last year inviting him to return to his mother's ancestral home. The former Daily Record reporter said, 'Donald Trump is going to be the most influential political figure of the next four years. Like the weather in the Hebrides - whether it's pleasant or stormy - you just have to go with it. 'He occupies the most powerful political office in the world, so we have to manage that relationship. We have to deal with him, and hopefully in a way that benefits our country. 'He obviously has an interest in Scotland. I think he sees it as a place that holds a special significance. I don't think he's that deeply connected to his mother's Hebridean roots. 'But he does view Scotland as a place where he has sentimental attachments, as well as business interests.
DONALD TRUMP SCOTLAND ECONOMY TARIFFS US POLITICS
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