Even as we decarbonize steel and cement, demand is likely to diminish, not increase.
How much steel does a person need to have a “first world” standard of living? Most people in the developed world never think of this question.
India is nowhere near Europe or America’s consumption per capita, but has been increasing the affluence of its population for decades to the point where there are only about 10% remaining in abject poverty. A clear goal of the India’s governments of the past decades is to bring its population out of poverty, and it’s working. The consumption of steel is strongly correlated with increase in per capita affluence.
First, the United States not only manufactures about 10 million light vehicles a year, it imports another 6 million or so, with almost 5% of its populace — statistically, not in reality — buying a new car each year. Europe, by contrast, exported 1.4 million more light vehicles than it imported, being the most trade-dominated geography, while China exported almost 16% of its light vehicles. Countering that somewhat, the USA’s light vehicles are anything but, about 1.
Let’s start with the obvious thing. The developed world overuses the stuff in our buildings because we’re affluent and liability-averse. It’s easier and has been cheaper to supersize walls and foundations rather than worry about future lawsuits. Our engineering rules of thumb have become bloated, not lean and athletic.will force us to put our construction on a diet. We’re already seeing up to 20% higher costs per ton of reinforced concrete in Canada and Europe and that’s going to drive change.
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