American and Russian leaders are struggling to re-establish the communication and diplomacy necessary to avoid catastrophe
with the Russian Ministry of Defense out of U.S. European Command headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany, to ensure that the two countries’ pilots or warships do not mistakenly fire upon one another as they conduct daily missions in eastern Europe.
But many of the Cold War agreements—The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas, Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities—no longer exist in force or function. “From 1962 to about 2013, Washington and Moscow were either actively negotiating some kind of agreement, or they at least had an understanding that the process was continuing, and our next negotiation is going to aim at a particular issue,” says Thomas M.
Biden has hinted at the cost of such lack of communication, admitting his team is still searching for answers to today’s conflict in Ukraine. “We are trying to figure out: What is Putin’s off-ramp?” Biden said. “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself where he does not only lose face, but significant power?”The lack of clarity increases the chances of miscalculation. Although U.S.
“I worry about a Russian cruise missile that strays across the border and hits a U.S.-NATO command center, probably by accident—but the Supreme Allied Commander will be potentially reacting directly in real time,” Stavridis says. “That could open a path to rapid escalation that could drag Russia and NATO into a direct conflict, which is in no one’s interest.”
When he was Supreme Allied Commander, Stavridis says he frequently called on his opposite number in the Kremlin, Russian General Nikolai Makarov, or Dimitri Rogozin, the then-Russian ambassador to NATO. They wouldn’t agree on most things, he says, “but at least we were talking.
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