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Annual U.S. biodiesel imports doubled from 2022 to 2023 to 33,000 barrels per day and continued to rise in the first two months of 2024, according to theavailable. Much of the increase in biodiesel imports has come from Germany, and the remaining increase has come mostly from elsewhere in Europe, where a biodiesel surplus has lowered prices.U.S.
Increased imports from China: Biodiesel imports into Europe from China increased by about 60% from 2021 to 2022 and by nearly 20% in 2023, according totanker tracking data. Although biodiesel imports from China are not a large share of, which makes the biodiesel eligible for double counting toward many EU member state targets. With more biodiesel double counting toward RED II targets, the total biodiesel volume needed to meet requirements decreases.
However, we forecast U.S. biodiesel production to decrease in 2024 because we assume that blending margins will be lower than in 2023, mostly due to lower RIN prices. Although increased production of renewable diesel is the primary reason for our assumption of lower RIN prices and blending margins, high biodiesel imports are also a contributing factor.
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