How do data and betting analysts view the title fights at UFC 304, UFC 305 and UFC 306?
In March 2021, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad fought to a no contest due to an accidental eye poke. At UFC 303, a rematch will be for the middleweight title. Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of"Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts," the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.
These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight. They assess relative favorability, running from the riskiest to the best matchup. Muhammad is another capable wrestler who has developed decent standup. But his six knockdowns received and zero scored mean he's at risk in a shootout on the feet against"Rocky." Muhammad's wrestling will have to be stifling to mitigate that risk, and executing that plan over five rounds is no sure thing. Knowing there's a decent gap in the fighters'"strength of schedule" makes me believe Edwards is still in the driver's seat here.
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