UK CPI Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, sharp decline in inflation

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UK CPI Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, sharp decline in inflation
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The United Kingdom will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, March 20 at 07:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming UK inflation print.

The United Kingdom will release the Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday, March 20 at 07:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming UK inflation print. The annual headline inflation is forecast to have grown at a slower pace of 3.6% against 4.0% in January. In the same period, core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is forecast to have decelerated to 4.

5% YoY, which would be the lowest year-on-year rate since January 2022. We expect services inflation at 6.0%, 0.1ppts below the MPC's forecast. Our unrounded forecasts for headline/core are 3.43%/4.46%, so we see risks skewed to the upside for headline inflation but to the downside for core. Overall, barring any major surprises to this month's data, headline inflation is still set to fall below target in April and remain below target for the rest of the year.

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