UK's economy may have tipped into recession after downturn in dominant service sector
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"Coming on the heels of a decline in the second quarter, would mean the UK is facing a heightened risk of recession," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. A recession is normally defined as when an economy contracts over two consecutive quarters. Growth was flat over the three months to July, but this was an improvement on the 0.2% contraction seen in the April-to-June quarter. ONS growth data for August is due for publication on 10 October.
The authors refer to Brexit-related anxiety: sentiment, rather than activity, may be clouding or obscuring the picture. It wouldn't be the first time. Earlier this year these surveys failed to fully reflect the flurry in Brexit preparations. Nor do they cover retail or the public sector - two areas that have underpinned the growth we have seen. The surveys can and do deviate from official growth numbers.
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