Nobody can say when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end—or how. But months of fighting has stamped five sets of tracks into the Ukrainian soil and, one day, these will converge on peace WorldAhead
By Edward Carr: Deputy editor, The Economistsay when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end—or how. But months of fighting have stamped five sets of tracks into the Ukrainian earth and, one day, these will converge on peace. Even allowing for the fortunes of war, the best gauge of the future is to trace their paths.
By contrast, Ukraine is well placed to muster committed troops and tactically shrewd officers, supplied with arms and intelligence bycountries. Perhaps, after wearing down Russian defensive positions in the south and in the Donbas region, Ukrainian forces will repeat the lightning-fast seizure of occupied territory in the east and south that they managed in September and October. But even if they cannot, they should be able to continue their slow advance.
These threats have backfired, by persuading Western governments that humouring Mr Putin would be dangerous. Giving in to the Kremlin today, as in 2014 when Russia first attacked Ukraine, would only set the stage for the next conflict. Western arms will therefore continue to flow eastward and Russian gas will never again flow westward in large amounts. This winter will be hard—and the next could be even worse, especially if Chinese demand for energy revives, pushing up the price of oil and gas.
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