In both war and peace, Ukraine will ask searching questions of the West’s resolve and unity
’s command centre near Mons in Belgium, are the opposite of imposing. Instead of granite and marble, the low-ceilinged corridors are decked out with plasterboard and tiled carpeting. Four-star generals prefer offices high above the fray, naturally—butonly has three storeys. The building, erected in the late 1960s, was supposed to be temporary.’s monumental sense of mission. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, on February 24th 2022, has revitalised the alliance.
The aid is not just an indication of America’s generosity, but also of its strength. At a cost of roughly 5% of America’s annual budget for defence, Ukrainian forces have punctured the myth of Russia’s military prowess, destroying more than 1,000 Russian tanks in less than a year. “We used to think Russia was the second-best military in the world,” says Ms Schake. “And now it’s not even the best military in the former Soviet Union.
Before the war, America saw burden-sharing mainly as a way to cut costs. Today, says Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on the National Security Council, it also has a broader strategic logic: “What Russia was saying is, OK, the United States is still an occupying force in Europe; Europe has no security; we want to be the dominant force just like Germany in World War One or World War Two.
Another worry is that Western arms-makers do not have the capacity to equip Ukraine for victory, let alone build up its arsenal during the peace and replenish’s own stocks. Ukraine is firing 5,000-6,000 shells a day, roughly the annual procurement of a smallcountry before Russia invaded. The West’s defence industries have withered since the collapse of the Soviet Union .
“It’s not some geopolitical turning point for the rest of the world,” says Mr Menon. “Where we are, the primary geopolitical fault line is still between China and theand this is not going to change it.” He sees the war as a struggle over European security. Whoever wins, or if neither side wins, Europe is going to be unsettled and preoccupied. Mr Menon sees Europe remaining a force in the global economy, but not becoming one in geopolitics.
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