Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation

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Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation
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'Ukraine's offensive is quickly pushing Russia back and raising the risks of Putin trying to expand the war.' 📝 ianbremmer

In the past week, Ukraine has regained more territory than Russia has captured in months, and the mood of its political and military leaders has turned dramatically upbeat. Russian artillery attacks that briefly knocked out power and water in parts of Ukraine have done little to dampen the mood.

Inside Russia, the mood continues to sour. Criticism of battlefield failures remains safely directed at Russia’s defense department, not at the president who pushed the generals into a war they were ill-prepared to wage. Complaints from Russian nationalists have grown louder. Chechen strongman, a valuable contributor of troops to Putin’s army, has publicly warned the Russian brass that further failure will lead him to have a word with Russia’s president.

His government continues to threaten any Russian who describes the war as a “war” with 15 years in prison, and he has refused the demands of Russian online hawks to order a draft that forces hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians to grab a rifle. Perhaps he fears conscription would dramatically shift Russian public opinion against his “special military operation.

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