Abrupt shifts within complex systems such as the Earth's climate system are extremely hard to predict. Researchers have now succeeded in developing a new method to anticipate such tipping points in advance.
Abrupt shifts within complex systems such as the Earth's climate system are extremely hard to predict. Researchers have now succeeded in developing a new method to anticipate such tipping points in advance. They successfully tested the reliability of their method using one of the most severe abrupt climate changes of the past: the shift of the once-green Sahara into a desert.
New study by Andreas Morr and Prof. Niklas Boers, researchers at TUM and PIK, introduces an advanced early detection method that provides more accurate and reliable early warnings, particularly under more realistic external conditions. Traditional methods assume that random disturbances in a system are uncorrelated in time. However, this is not realistic for climate systems, because it assumes each day's weather would be independent of the previous day.
By improving the accuracy of early warning signals, the research supports better preparedness and response strategies, ultimately helping to protect ecosystems and human societies from severe impacts of potential climate tipping points that might be crossed due to anthropogenic climate change.Positive tipping points must be triggered if we are to avoid the severe consequences of damaging Earth system tipping points, researchers ...
Endangered Plants Evolutionary Biology Endangered Animals Weather Climate Global Warming Natural Disasters
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