'If aid dwindles, it will be much more difficult for Ukraine to sustain fighting, if not impossible,' says one analyst
‘If aid dwindles, it will be much more difficult for Ukraine to sustain fighting, if not impossible,’ says one analystNato military chief Admiral Rob Bauer told the Warsaw Security Forum this week that the alliance is approaching “the bottom of the barrel” of ammunition stocks as manufacturers struggle to keep up with heavy fighting on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s former defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said his forces were firing an average of 110,000 shells a month in March – a figure thought to have increased after the counteroffensive began in June.Ukraine has also relied on long-range Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles from the UK and France respectively, but France is believed to have fewer than 400 Scalps while the number of Storm Shadows is also estimated at hundreds rather than thousands.
Any break in support could be devastating for Ukraine, says Dr Marina Miron of the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London. While Ukraine sustained a relatively low intensity war with Russia between 2014 and 2022 with limited support, material demands have vastly increased since Russia’s full-scale invasion which Kyiv cannot meet.“If Russia is producing two million artillery rounds a year Ukraine cannot compete,” says Dr Miron. “Even the US has issues competing.”
“It’s not even just a matter of getting the Russians out, it’s also a matter of not collapsing as a state,” said Dr Miron.
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