The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is reconsidering its models for Pacific Ocean cycles due to record high sea temperatures, which are disrupting weather patterns globally.
The top US climate agency is rethinking its modelling of the critical Pacific Ocean cycles that feed into the world’s atmospheric shifts, as record hot sea temperatures globally scramble weather patterns . Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) told the Financial Times they were holding discussions internally and consulting other national agencies about how to make forecasts more accurate.
“It’s certainly an indication that global warming is messing with the traditional ways we monitor events,” said Nathaniel Johnson, a scientist on a team that develops the US models. “We should consider . . . whether our traditional metrics will still work as well given how much our oceans are warming.” This follows a recent move by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to stop publishing a key short-term forecast after a backlash from farmers earlier this year, when predicted dry conditions turned into flooding. Changes to the temperature of one area of the tropical Pacific Ocean have until now underpinned observations of the naturally-occurring so-called El Niño warming effect or La Niña cooling effect by major weather and climate agencies. Swings in the temperature of this defined zone shape extreme weather events and temperatures over a years-long cycle, with effects felt right across the globe, bringing heavy rain to some regions and parching others as a consequence. These pendulum swings from hot to cool take place every few years, and farmers, commodity traders and disaster agencies rely on the phenomenon being accurately modelled to prepare for the impact. But some scientists say that, as climate change may be interfering with the way the cycles are measured and the effects they create, the warming of tropical oceans around the world may need to start being factored in. “It is being discussed,” said Michelle L’Heureux, who leads the team that develops the NOAA modelling of the El Niño and La Niña effects
Climate Change Weather Patterns El Niño La Niña Ocean Temperatures
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