The US Dollar (USD) was all over the place on Thursday after the release of the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. The USD first jumped on the high Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) numbers in that release
The US Dollar continues its retreat against most major pairs on Friday. Traders are having it difficult to value the next directional move for the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index continues its downtrend pattern and could face 105.00 should US PCE inflation data come in below expectations. The US Dollar was all over the place on Thursday after the release of the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter.
The big question is which cycle the US economy is in, as clearly that exceptionalism label is coming off. Stagflation would be the worst possible scenario for the Fed, being unable to cut interest rates with elevated inflation while US performance is deteriorating. On the upside, 105.88 needs to be recovered again before targeting the April 16 high at 106.52. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high. On the downside, 105.
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