Forex Analysis by Forex Analytix (Blake Morrow) covering: USD/CNY, USD/CNH. Read Forex Analytix (Blake Morrow)'s latest article on Investing.com
PBOC Governor Pan spoke overnight and confirmed that they are still looking to continue their accommodative stance, albeit with no big changes likely. One thing they did touch on was that they are looking at purchasing their own Treasury bonds. However, they also said that wouldn’t be QE as styled in the West but more as a “liquidity-management tool”. However, they spin it, buying one's own bonds is QE in one shape or another.
That comment would suggest that they are perhaps going to allow the yuan to weaken somewhat as long as any moves are not excessive. When officials drop hints about FX, they need to be heeded as they are very direct and can stop a currency in its tracks, or allow it to move a good amount.has been in an uptrend for pretty much all of 2024 and officials have had their state banks intervening to keep CNY from weakening too much. Now, they might be easing off the brakes.
The proof of these comments will be seen by what happens now. One item to focus on now is the PBOC fixes, which have been stuck at the 7.10/7.11 levels for weeks. If they start creeping up, that will indicate that indeed, they are going to let the yuan move, and from that point, we’ll need to see where it goes from there and how fast.
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