But a backlash over clean-air policies in one of three by-elections leaves questions for the opposition Labour Party
Sir Keir Starmer’s home in north London report finding a worried man. The Labour leader frets about how he would organise Downing Street, and about the aptitude of some of his staff for government. Above all, he is anxious that he won’t get there at all. His party has wide and consistent leads in opinion polls, leaving many of his colleagues ebullient that they will be taking jobs in government after an election is called next year. Sir Keir himself, however, sees that as hubristic.
The three contests were a symptom of Tory malaise after 13 years in office. Boris Johnson, a former prime minister, resigned his seat in Uxbridge on June 9th, after a committee of Parliament concluded he had lied over the Partygate scandal. Nigel Adams, his close ally, stood down asfor Selby the next day. David Warburton quit in Somerton over allegations of drug-taking, which he admitted, and sexual misconduct, which he denies.
In Somerton, the Liberal Democrats’ swing of 29 points was their fifth-largest against the Conservatives since 1945, and their fourth by-election victory since the 2019 general election. It suggests the Lib Dems have returned to their historic form as a machine for picking off Tory seats in by-elections. It also suggests the party is also recovering in its historic rural heartlands in south-west England. The Lib Dems have enjoyed a recent surge in wealthier commuter towns near London, too.
Yet the party’s success in Uxbridge may encourage it to do just that. Both parties have concluded that Labour’s defeat was due to the Tories’ opposition to the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone . It levies a £12.50 daily charge on cars that don’t meet emissions standards—broadly including diesel vehicles over eight years old or a petrol car over 18 years old. The zone, which currently covers inner London, will be tripled in size to cover the city’s outer boroughs on August 29th.
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