What is good for the British prime minister’s short-term survival, which depends on his party, may be bad for his party’s prospects, which depend on voters
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskMr Johnson needed a boost from somewhere. In January he faced being kicked out of office in a parliamentary rebellion after it emerged that raucous parties were held in Downing Street during covid-19 lockdowns. His approval ratings fell to the lowest of any prime minister since John Major in 1994. On March 29th he hosted a kiss-and-make-up dinner for Torys at the Park Plaza, a hotel across the Thames from Parliament.
Mr Johnson had similarly indulged Tory solipsism in a speech on March 19th to the party’s spring conference in Blackpool, likening Ukraine’s struggle for freedom with Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
. That appears fanciful. But the prime minister’s position does seem more secure, in part because of such jingoism. Severals who wrote letters calling for a no-confidence vote have withdrawn them, declaring that a war is no time for a leadership contest. His net approval rating has recovered somewhat, rising to -33 from a nadir of -51 in mid-January. Voters overwhelmingly support arming Ukraine. The Tories’ gap with the Labour Party has narrowed.
Equally important for Mr Johnson’s job security is that Rishi Sunak, his chancellor and chief rival, has faltered. A budget update on March 23rd was widely criticised for doing too little to ease the impact of a squeeze on household incomes. The coming year will be painful: state benefits will fall by almost 5% in real terms and energy bills are expected to rise by a total of 130%.s’ suspicions that, despite a slick start, Mr Sunak is too inexperienced for the top job.
This is all good for Mr Johnson’s short-term survival, which depends on his party. But it is bad for his party’s prospects, which depend on voters. Meanwhile the scandal over lockdown parties is flaring up again. On March 29th the Metropolitan Police announced it would issue 20 fines. The force has refused to name recipients, but Downing Street said that if Mr Johnson were to be handed one, that would be made public. He would then face renewed calls to quit—which he would surely face down.
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