Here’s why we missed the forecast Thursday.
to be one of the nicest days of the spring. We called for sunny skies, delightful temperatures and just some pop-up afternoon clouds. The day earned a perfect 10 out of 10 rating.Numerous showers and even some thunderstorms erupted during the afternoon — several unloading pea-sized chunks of ice. Some locations dodged the deluge and our 10 out of 10 rating was verified. But other places were blasted by the sudden cloud bursts, repeatedly.
But as the sun heated the ground and the warm air at low elevations ascended and contrasted with the chilly air aloft, clouds bubbled up. The disturbance was vigorous enough for tall, precipitating-producing clouds to mature. And so it rained and hailed. Thursday marked the eighth day in a row with at least a trace of rain in Washington.
There were some computer models that showed a 10 percent chance of rain. That means in 9 out of 10 cases, it would have stayed dry in similar circumstances. A better forecast would’ve called for increasing afternoon clouds and a slight chance of a shower or storm. The day’s rating probably should’ve been an 8 or so, rather than a 10.1) We should include a chance of a shower in our forecasts when there’s strong sunshine and an intense high-altitude disturbance passing by.The 37 best things to do in D.C. this weekend and next week
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