The country could see a far right party enter government for the first time since the 1949-1975 Franco dictatorship. Here's what to know:
introduced by Sánchez’s government if elected, including a law allowing children over 14 to change their legal gender with parental approval.Not exactly. While Vox is closer to power than ever before, the party is actually projected to lose seats this election. “It’s a paradox because the far right may be in government, but they are actually going down in polls,” says Torreblanca. “Vox is not particularly strong now; it’s been stronger.
This paradox can be explained in part by the fact that Spanish right, which used to be occupied by three parties, is down to just two: the PP and Vox. The third, the center-right Ciudadanos Party, has all but disappeared from Spain’s political landscape andin this election after disappointing results in recent contests. Most of its supporters have flocked to the PP, with some going to Vox.
“This explains why the Socialists can have a pretty similar result in comparison to 2019 but become the second party,” says Simón, referencing the polls that project the PSOE winning 28% of the vote, the same proportion that delivered the party’s victory during the country’s last general election four years ago.The polls project that the PP could win anywhere between 143 and 145 seats, the biggest proportion of seats but short of the 176 it needs to secure an absolute majority.
Alternatively, the PP could look to Sánchez’s socialists for help. If the PSOE were to agree to abstain from the parliamentary confidence vote, this would enable the PP to form a government with a simple majority and, crucially, without the support of Vox. This kind of deal is not without precedent: The PSOEin 2016, thereby allowing then-PP leader Mariano Rajoy to form a government following two inconclusive elections.
“For that scenario to come up, Feijóo has to be very close to 176,” says Torreblanca, noting that Sánchez will be loath to be seen to help the conservatives unless there was no alternative. Indeed, when Feijóo asked Sanchez directly whether he would make such a commitment duringSpain doesn’t typically hold summer elections, and with good reason.
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