After its failed mutiny by leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner mercenary troops left Ukraine and were on the outer in Russia. Prigozhin set their sights on Africa, and was sighted there days before a deadly plane crash that had him listed as a passenger.
In the wake of their withdrawal from Ukraine, Wagner Group had been expected to maintain, if not grow, its clientele in Africa.
“Basically, any African government that is undergoing an insurgency that they really can't handle on their own, and don't have other forms of international military support, are asking for Wagner support,” Sandor said. It’s too early to say whether neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, the most recent countries to go through coups, are on the same path.
One report by an open-source research group All Eyes On Wagner details social media campaigns in Burkina Faso, run by actors allegedly paid by Prigozhin and Wagner Group. Their tactics resembled those used by Prigozhin’s Internet Research Agency during the 2016 US presidential elections. Moscow has been trying to counterbalance Western influence on the African continent to ensure it continues to sell arms and tap into natural resources. Additionally, it has sought diplomatic allies as it faced international isolation in response to its invasion of Ukraine. This year, Russia’s foreign minister toured several African nations ahead of Putin’s summit.
“Military elites are utilising tensions at a geopolitical level between the West and Russia and using Wagner services in a very particular way. So we need to put local politics at the forefront,” Sandor of the University of Bayreuth said.
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