The internet offers a crude guide. Lacking helpful clues that might be provided by a free press and open political debate, Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion
to spark fury among nationalist netizens in China, especially when the topic is Taiwan. Any action that could be viewed as a challenge to China’s claim to the island arouses a chorus of calls for war. Their voices alarm Western officials, who fret that Chinese policymakers may make concessions to their public’s swelling nationalism and the bellicosity it has spawned. Last year China’s leader, Xi Jinping, hinted that the West may be right to worry.
Many online commentators in China argue that it is no longer worth trying kid-glove tactics with Taiwan. “Separatists”, they say, have become too entrenched there; only war can secure it for China. If Mr Xi agrees, he does not say so openly. His language strikes more of a balance.
In a recent paper, Adam Liu of the National University of Singapore and Xiaojun Li of New York University Shanghai and the University of British Columbia argued that support for a near-term war, to the exclusion of all other options, was tiny. Their conclusions were based on a survey they conducted in China between late 2020 and early 2021.
Their research was conducted before Vladimir Putin launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia’s unexpected setbacks in that war, and the West’s solidarity in response to it, must have been sobering for some supporters of rapid steps towardsCalls abound for caution about the scale of the task of conquering Taiwan militarily. One such has come from Wu Haipeng, the editor-in-chief of the government’s main portal, China.com.
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