Unlike western leaders, the Russian president does not answer to voters or the media. Which means he plays a much, much longer game, says political science academic Olga Chyzh
Escalating military assistance from small anti-tank devices to artillery, Patriot missile defence systems to tanks, is a signalling strategy akin to that of incrementally raising the bet to convey a strong hand in poker. As they cross Russia’s “red lines” one after another, the US and its allies are sending a message about their resolve to providewith the support it needs to repel Russia’s invasion.
While western leaders congratulate one another on excelling at this game of poker, Putin and his elites are not even playing at the same table. From Russia’s perspective, its current adversaries in the west are but momentary blips on its way to achieving its military goals. In two years’ time, the US president, Joe Biden, may no longer be there to ensure western unity in its support for Ukraine. And even a small crack may be sufficient to turn the tide for Russia.
The west acts as if it is unaware of this second advantage, mistakenly judging Russia by its own benchmark. In the minds of western leaders, there exists a military cost threshold, in casualties or treasure, that would compel Russia to back down: if only Ukraine had one more breakthrough, Russia might just see the light and agree to make some compromises.
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