More heatwaves could be on the way this summer after a record-breaking May, suggest forecasters
May where temperatures surged to 35.1C at Kew Gardens in London, cooler and wetter conditions have returned across much of the country. But in its latest three-month outlook, covering June, July and August, the Met Office said the chances of a hot summer were higher than normal, raising the prospect of further spells of extreme heat in the months ahead.
Forecasters said temperatures were likely to rise again later this month, with “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”. For now, the heatwave has been replaced by a more typical early-summer pattern, with Atlantic weather systems bringing spells of rain, showers and cooler temperatures.to dominate through much of the first half of June, with temperatures generally close to seasonal averages.
Some areas could also see heavy downpours and thunderstorms as low-pressure systems move across the country.long-range forecast suggests high pressure is likely to become more influential from the middle of June onwards, bringing drier weather to many areas and allowing temperatures to climb. While it is too early to predict another heatwave, forecasters say there is a growing possibility of very warm or hot conditions developing later in the month, particularly across southern and eastern parts of the UK.
Some weather models indicate temperatures could rise well above average during the second half of June if high pressure becomes established over north-west Europe. The recent heatwave may offer a glimpse of what lies ahead. The latest three-month outlook from the Met Office is not based on a single weather event but on broader climate signals that influence seasonal conditions. Private forecasters have reached similar conclusions to the Met Office.
MeteoGroup, which provides data for BBC Weather, predicts above-average temperatures throughout the summer and says there could be several significant bursts of heat affecting both the UK and mainland Europe.. According to the Met Office, hot summers are now around twice as likely as they were during the 1991-2020 climate reference period. While many people may welcome the return of sunshine after a wet start to June, another heatwave could bring challenges.
Last week’s hot spell placed pressure on water supplies in parts of southern England, withreported exceptionally high usage as temperatures climbed above 30°C for several consecutive days. River levels in some parts of eastern and southern England are already lower than normal following a particularly dry spring. Health officials also issued yellow and amber heat-health alerts during the May heatwave, warning that extreme temperatures can pose risks to older people, young children and those with underlying health conditions.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific become warmer than usual. Although its influence on UK weather is indirect, El Niño years are often associated with higher global temperatures and can sometimes increase the chances of warmer conditions reaching Europe.
Several forecasters are predicting this El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded, leading some to dub it Beyond temperatures, Britons could experience the impact of extreme weather in other ways, such as through increased food prices, owing to factors such as crop failures, supply disruption due to extreme weather, or rising energy costs because of climate disruption.
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