Between 1934 and 2018 the party in power lost an average of 28 seats in the House and four in the Senate. The Democratic Party is likely to beat those expectations. But it could do so and still lose power
in almost every close contest. As a result, projections for the Senate are remarkably uncertain. Our model now reckons that Democrats have a 44% chance of retaining control of the upper chamber, and projects that on average they will lose one seat.
Second, polls of individual House districts have suggested that many Democrats—including Mary Peltola in Alaska, Sharice Davids in Kansas and Jared Golden in Maine—are holding up far better than might be expected amid a red wave. Republicans appearto make big gains in open seats, but Democratic incumbents appear to be maximising their advantages.
In theory, this year’s special-election results might look too rosy for Democrats, since they occurred near the peak of the party’s summer surge in polling. Nonetheless, every disastrous midterm for the president’s party since 1990 has been preceded by a significant deficit in either generic-ballot polls, special-election results, or both. Neither condition applies this year.means Republicans or Democrats could end up with a broad majority once votes are tallied. Take Washington state.
We have also used our model to produce forecasts that assume varying levels of polling bias. What does our poll-of-polls show if we assumed pre-election surveys were as biased as they have been in Senate and presidential contests since 2016? The Democrats’ lead vanishes in four of the five states where they are currently ahead. Ms Murray’s margin in Washington falls to a dangerously close 2.4 points; in New Hampshire, the party’s lead falls from three points to zero. In Arizona, the current 2.
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