Why bond yields are likely to end the year lower
The US bond market continues its volatile performance in 2024, with Treasury yields recently reaching four-week highs. However, despite near-term strength, UBS strategists believe bond yields are likely to end the year lower, due to several macroeconomic factors.
"Hard data continues to suggest that inflation should trend lower for the rest of this year following April’s encouraging print," they noted. “With a softening labor market and slowing economic growth, we continue to expect the Fed to start policy easing in September, with a total of 50 basis points of rate cuts this year,” strategists wrote.
"We believe this should reduce upward pressure on real rates and drive the next leg lower in yields," UBS continued.
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