ANALYSIS: 'Nobody can predict with certainty the outcome to the Russia-Ukraine war, but we can look at all the various pressures at play and then use those to try to assess the most likely direction from here,' writes John Lyons.
From my visits to Ukraine and from talking to Russia experts, one thing is certain: Zelenskyy is extremely fearful that Donald Trump will return to the White House next year while Putin is extremely hopeful that he will.
This would be devastating for Ukrainians and they simply would not accept it — it would mean Ukraine was at military war with Russia and at political war with the US, currently its biggest backer.For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the arrival of more fighter jets is the main ask. Given that there is in effect a deadlock on the battlefield with some minor gains by Ukraine, that would give Russia the ability to consolidate the 20 per cent of Ukraine that it currently has taken and perhaps take even more.
This is why every Ukrainian I spoke to about a possible negotiation reacted very badly. After so many of their citizens have been killed, raped and imprisoned by Russian soldiers, Ukrainians would be outraged by the idea of giving Russia any of their land. It would be seen as a reward for brutality. If they had to choose, they would rather a peace process mediated by Xi than Trump. They know that Xi has the ability to pressure Moscow into concessions that neither Trump nor any other US politician can offer.Ukraine's keenness for China to help bring an end to this war was demonstrated by how Zelenskyy instantly accepted Xi's offer of an envoy in that April 26 phone call.
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