Concerns are growing for an extra-active tornado season on the Plains, where there has already been more severe storms than normal this year.
The United States sees, on average, about 1,200 tornadoes per year. Most are weak and fleeting — often touching down only briefly and causing minimal damage. A few are strong or violent, tracking dozens of miles and destroying entire neighborhoods. Experts are warning that this year, the peak of tornado season — from April through June — could be extra busy in the Plains.
Overall, the Lower 48 has tallied 140 confirmed tornadoes since the start of the year, fewer than the season-to-date average of 174. John Allen, a professor at Central Michigan University, said in an email that a “lack of appreciable snow cover, missing ice over the Great Lakes,” is allowing more warm, moist air from an extra-warm Gulf of Mexico to make it much farther north than usual. That’s why Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana have seen heightened tornado activity.or thunderstorm fuel. During winter, instability is usually lacking because of chillier temperatures.
Moreover, if storms do form, they could also be further energized by anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures, which are running several degrees above average in the Gulf.Thereafter, the outlook becomes murkier. While El Niño is present now, a rapid shift to La Niña conditions is likely into the summer months.
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