A pollyanna-ish view of interest rates has been dispelled
, April is the cruellest month. Shareholders would disagree. For them, it is September. The rest of the year stocks tend to rise more often than not. Since 1928, the ratio of monthly gains to losses in America’s500 index, excluding September, has been about 60/40. But the autumn chill seems to do something to the market’s psyche. In September the index has fallen 55% of the time. True to form, after a jittery August it has spent recent weeks falling.
The downturn was prompted by a marathon session of monetary-policy announcements, which began with America’s Federal Reserve on September 20th and concluded two days and 11 central banks later. Except for the Bank of Japan, which kept its short-term interest rate negative, all the big hitters repeated the “higher for longer” message.
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