Goldman Sachs asserts that the recent surge in European natural gas prices, triggered by concerns over the Ukraine conflict, is exaggerated and unlikely to persist.
Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region earlier this month rattled the European natural gas market, pushing prices above 40 euros per megawatt-hour amid concerns that Russian natural gas supplies to the EU might be severed. However, prices have since receded, with Goldman's Samantha Dart telling clients Monday that the price rally is mostly 'overdone.
Second, while there has been no loss of pipeline supply, the longer these higher European gas prices are sustained relative to European coal and Asia LNG prices Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2, the lower the gas demand owing to gas-to-coal switching and the higher potentially European LNG imports, especially if the ongoing heat wave in Northeast Asia ebbs, helping soften the forward balance outlook for European gas.
Ukraine Conflict Goldman Sachs Gazprom Energy Prices Energy Market Analysis Russian Gas Supplies European Gas Storage Geopolitical Risks Gas Price Forecasts
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