For five months a fragile ceasefire lulled some into believing Ethiopia’s civil war, which counts ethnic cleansing and famine among its horrors, was over. On August 24th these delusions were shattered
months a fragile ceasefire—or, more accurately, stalemate—lulled some observers into believing Ethiopia’s civil war, which countsamong its horrors, was over. On August 24th such delusions were shattered. Clashes between the Ethiopian army and forces from Tigray, a northern region ruled by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front , a party-cum-militia, erupted around Kobo, a border town in the Amhara region to the south of Tigray.
The TPLF and the federal government accused each other of shooting first. A communications blackout in Tigray makes it hard to know who is right. Either way, a “humanitarian truce” agreed on in March to let aid into besieged Tigray had been on its deathbed for weeks. Though the government had allowed food, medicine and fertiliser to enter the region, it kept strict limits on fuel and cash allowances. Telecoms, banking services and electricity also remained switched off.
. Mediation, led by the African Union and supported by America and the EU, has been dismal. During preliminary talks in June the Ethiopian government agreed to restore basic services, such as telecoms and banking, to Tigray. But Western diplomats, distracted by the war in Ukraine, have put little pressure on Abiy to keep his word.
Despite Abiy’s notional commitment to talks, in private many Ethiopian officials say there can be no deal with the TPLF, which they call a “terrorist” group. The TPLF says its goal is simply to force Abiy to the negotiating table. But it is likely to want to make significant military gains before agreeing to talk itself.
In recent days, a unit of Tigrayan fighters stationed inside Sudan has reportedly joined the fray in Ethiopia—a sign that its civil war may yet spill into neighbouring countries. More ominous is the involvement of Eritrea, an ally of Abiy’s, against the TPLF. There has been some renewed fighting on the border between the two countries; Eritrea’s ageing dictator, Issaias Afwerki, would like to see the Tigrayans routed.
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