Why Oil Markets Are Trading With Zero Conviction

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Why Oil Markets Are Trading With Zero Conviction
Oil PricesProduction CutsMarket Volatility
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Standard Chartered analysts, while correctly predicting the OPEC decision, said oil markets are simply waiting for Trump to take office before moving dramatically in one direction or another.

With nearly a month since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won a second term in the Oval Office, oil markets have been struggling to find direction despite event risk remaining high, particularly in the Middle East. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the market's apparent hesitation to trade a view with any conviction has intensified the notion that oil markets seem content to wait for Trump to take office.

According to StanChart, much of the negative sentiment that has dominated oil markets over the past couple of months can be chalked up to misapprehensions about the tapering mechanism for the voluntary cuts made by eight OPEC countries. Many traders are worried that the balance of oil demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth might not offset the scale of restored OPECoutput, leaving oil markets oversupplied.

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