WASHINGTON (AP) — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has reached 15% or more in three approved national polls.
FILE - Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during the Libertarian National Convention at the Washington Hilton in Washington, May 24, 2024. An Associated Press analysis of Gallup data going back to 1980 shows that it’s pretty common for third-party candidates to look like they have polling momentum in the months before an election, only to come up far short at the ballot box.
Studies have shown that people are bad at predicting their future behavior, and voting is months away. And in a year with two highly unpopular candidates in, voters may also use their early support for a third-party candidate to express their frustration with the major party choices. In the end, voters may support the candidate for whom they feel their vote can make a difference or they may decide not to vote at all.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Marjorie Hershey, a professor emeritus in the political science department at Indiana University, said Americans generally like the idea of a third party until specifics emerge, such as that party’s policies and nominees. In multiple elections, including the 1980, 1992, and 2016 presidential races, third-party candidates hit early polling numbers that were much higher than their ultimate vote share. For instance, in polls conducted in May and June 1980, between 21% and 24% of registered voters said they would like to see independent candidate, a veteran Republican congressman from Illinois, win when he ran for president against Republican Ronald Reagan and Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.
Johnson told the AP that he believes his name should have been included in more polls, though he was in surveys used to determine eligibility for debates.
Elections Joe Biden Donald Trump General News Election 2024 Washington News United States Government Politics John D. Anderson Robert F. Kennedy Jr. P Government Appointments And Nominations 2024 United States Presidential Election W Gary E. Johnson Washington News
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