Standard Chartered no supply glut is likely in at least Q4-2024 and H1-2025 if OPEC producers keep to their commitments.
Over the past couple of weeks, oil markets have been marred by a storm of top-down macroeconomic fears that fed momentum-following algorithms, resulting in an extended oil price fall exacerbated by a final stage of gamma hedging by banks. The overwhelming bearishness among money managers took positioning in crude oil and oil products to the most bearish extreme since the start of the Global Financial Crisis GFC in 2008.
Second, no supply glut is likely in at least Q4-2024 and H1-2025 if OPEC producers keep to their commitments. Last week, StanChart reported that oil markets are overlooking the imminent removal of even more barrels from the markets in the coming months. Back in July, Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat for overproduced crude volumes for the first six months of 2024.
Fundamentals Oil Oil Demand OPEC Output Cuts
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