Political strategists expect the Dunkley byelection to go to the wire. And the cost of living will be front and centre of voters’ minds.
Of all the messages road-tested in the Dunkley byelection, there is only one that will shape the political year ahead: what both major political parties will do to tackle the cost-of-living challenges hurting Australian households.Following the death from cancer of former Labor MP Peta Murphy at just 50 in December, Labor candidate Jodie Belyea is hoping to ward off a stern challenge from Liberal candidate and local mayor Nathan Conroy.
Belyea, a community sector worker from Frankston, says the message about the July 1 tax cuts is getting through. “I think people are not focused on the tax changes at all because it’s $14 on average for the people of Dunkley, in five months’ time,” Conroy said. A Labor strategist predicted the lion’s share of the One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party vote – the parties are not running candidates – would flow back to the Liberals, while there was no “Scott Morrison factor” this time either. The source suggested the Liberal primary vote would return to the historical average of about 40 per cent, in a seat the party had held continuously from 1996 to 2019.
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