Without hard thinking on tax and the state, Kemi Badenoch is doomed to fail

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Without hard thinking on tax and the state, Kemi Badenoch is doomed to fail
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The new Tory leader can’t rely on Labour being derailed by global events or problems with its own model

The Conservative party lost the 2024 general election for a number of reasons — chief among them that they won the 2019 election by promising to improve public services, not to raise taxes, and to reduce the number of immigrants coming to the UK. Public services got worse, taxes and immigrations both went up. The “Partygate” scandal cost the Tory party the benefit of the doubt and Liz Truss’s economic experiment cost it its economic credibility.

The result was always going to be something like the Truss budget, in which radicalism on tax cuts was not matched by radicalism in reducing spending. To avoid a repeat of that in the future, the Tories need to start by deciding what they think is an appropriate level of public provision. Then, and only then, can they start thinking about the promises they want to make on immigration — and only after that can they get to talking about who they want to tax and how much.

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