Hopes that the Federal Reserve and others could soon pause the aggressive interest rate hiking cycle has supported world stocks even as sentiment more generally has been rattled by the failures of two US lenders and Credit Suisse's shotgun merger with UBS
, in a gain it has held onto since. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.
This historical relationship may have faltered because the market "does not believe there will be meaningful contagion from the financial sector into the broader economy," Morgan Stanley chief European equity strategist Graham Secker said. "Banks are likely to lend a lot less to the economy," Ielpo said. Higher costs of credit will weaken earnings, he added, prompting "a moment of reckoning" when equity holders switch allocations to bonds.U.S. Treasury yields are higher than those on 10-year peers. This so-called yield curve inversion, often a harbinger of recession, last monthSince 1967, yield curve inversions have occurred 15 months before recessions, on average, Barclays research shows.
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